Face Off in the Race for the Portuguese Presidency

Three Main Contenders Compete For Portuguese Presidency

As the 2026 election approaches, Portugal finds itself at a political crossroads. Three prominent men are currently leading the conversation about who should succeed Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa. Each candidate represents a different vision for the country, ranging from military discipline and traditional party experience to radical right-wing change. The contest is increasingly personal, with recent data highlighting deep divisions over ethics, stability, and the role of the state.

Gouveia e Melo Positions Himself Between Socialism and Social Democracy

Admiral Henrique Gouveia e Melo, known for leading Portugal’s successful Covid-19 vaccination campaign, is running as an independent. He presents himself as a leader who can unify the country and act as a counter-power to party politics. He has stated that his political views are rooted in social democracy, while firmly defending liberal democracy.

• Political Identity: Defines himself as a centrist who values national cohesion over party loyalty.

• Security and Defense: Argues for a strategic military plan and warns that Europe must prepare for international threats, specifically regarding Russia.

• Judicial Reform: Calls for a faster justice system that avoids media spectacles and public trials.

• Stability: Believes the president should only dissolve Parliament when the contract between the government and the people is clearly broken.

Marques Mendes Emphasizes the Value of 45 Years of Political Experience

Luís Marques Mendes, a former leader of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) and long-time TV commentator, officially formalized his candidacy in December 2025. His campaign highlights his decades in public service. He argues that his deep knowledge of the political system makes him the safest choice to maintain institutional stability.

• Independence: Promises to be strictly independent of any party if elected, despite his long history with the PSD.

• Institutional Stability: Opposes the frequent dissolution of Parliament, arguing that the country needs a predictable government.

• Economic View: Generally supports center-right economic policies and fiscal responsibility.

• Leadership Style: Positions himself as a calm, seasoned statesman who understands the legal and constitutional limits of the presidency.

André Ventura Leads the Opposition with a Nationalist and Conservative Platform

André Ventura, the leader of the Chega party, became the official Leader of the Opposition in 2025 after strong legislative results. He is running a campaign built on challenging the traditional political elite. Ventura describes himself as an economic liberal, a nationalist, and a conservative, focusing on issues like immigration and law and order.

• Systemic Change: Wants to reform the Portuguese Constitution to give the president more power or change the political system entirely.

• Law and Order: Advocates for stricter punishments for criminals and stronger support for police forces.

• Immigration: Pushes for much tighter controls and stricter laws regarding who can enter and stay in Portugal.

• Anti-Elite Rhetoric: Frequently attacks both the center-left and center-right, claiming they are part of a corrupt system.

Recent December 17 Polls Show a Technical Tie at the Top

New polls from December 17, 2025, shows a major change in the race. While Admiral Gouveia e Melo led the polls for many months, he has recently lost ground. All three contenders are now in a technical tie for the lead, showing that the electorate is divided between a return to traditional experience and a push for radical change.

Key Results from the December 17 Poll

The data showed a three-way split among the frontrunners, with all three within the margin of error (typically +/- 3%):

• André Ventura (Chega): 25% Ventura reached his highest level of support in this poll, benefiting from his aggressive stance as the primary critic of the current government.

• Luís Marques Mendes (Independent/PSD): 24% Mendes saw a steady increase following the formalization of his candidacy, appealing to voters who value institutional experience and calm leadership.

• Henrique Gouveia e Melo (Independent): 23% For the first time since polling began, the Admiral fell to third place (though still within the tie). His support dropped from nearly 30% earlier in the year as the campaign became more politicized.

Why These Polls Changed the Election Narrative

1. The End of the "Admiral Myth": Until December, many analysts believed Gouveia e Melo was unbeatable due to his popularity from the vaccination campaign. This poll proved that party-aligned voters were returning to traditional candidates.

2. The Rise of the Right: The combined support for Ventura and Marques Mendes (49%) showed a strong preference for a center-right or right-wing president to balance the socialist-led parliament.

3. High Undecided Percentage: The poll also indicated that about 15–20% of voters remained undecided, suggesting that the televised debates in late December would be the deciding factor for the election.

Comparing the Three Candidates

The table below shows how the candidates differ on major national issues.

The tension between the candidates has become public during recent televised events. During a debate in late 2025, Gouveia e Melo challenged the ties Marques Mendes has to the business world. Marques Mendes responded by suggesting the Admiral was becoming too similar to the populist style of André Ventura.

As the campaign enters its final stage, voters will decide the winner of the first round in January. If as to be expected, no candidate secures an absolute majority, the two leading contenders will face each other in a runoff on February 8.