Portugal Holds First Presidential Election Since 1986 Likely to Require Runoff Vote
Around 11 million Portuguese voters head to the polls today in a historic presidential election that appears certain to require a second round for the first time in 40 years. The race to succeed President Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa, who has served the maximum two consecutive terms, features 11 candidates - a record in Portugal's history. The last time a Portuguese presidential election needed a runoff was in 1986, making today's fragmented field a watershed moment for the nation's democracy.
Catolica Poll Shows Ventura at 24% and Seguro at 23%, While Competing Surveys Place Five Candidates Within Margin of Error
The campaign's final weeks have witnessed dramatic shifts in voter preferences., with different surveys showing different leaders. A survey by Catolica University pollsters published by Publico daily showed André Ventura, the far-right leader of the opposition party Chega, marginally ahead on 24% of voting intentions, closely followed by Socialist António José Seguro on 23%. The poll, which surveyed 1,770 voters, carries a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points. João Cotrim de Figueiredo, a member of the European Parliament from the pro-business Liberal Initiative party, registered 19%.
However, a competing Pitagórica tracking poll showed a different order, with Seguro leading at 19.3%, narrowly ahead of independent Henrique Gouveia e Melo at 19.2%, Ventura at 18.3%, Cotrim de Figueiredo at 18.0%, and Luís Marques Mendes at 15.4%. The conflicting results underscore how tight the race has become, with at least five candidates bunched together within statistical margins of error.
Political scientist António Costa Pinto explained the significance of the fragmented landscape:
Fragmentation of the electorate continues, making it likely that candidates from the two traditional parties will receive fewer votes than their parties secured in last year's parliamentary election, which saw Chega overtake the Socialists.
Admiral Gouveia e Melo Drops to 15-19% After Leading at 35% in February 2025
Former Navy Chief of Staff Henrique Gouveia e Melo, who gained national prominence coordinating Portugal's COVID-19 vaccination campaign, has seen his support erode significantly since early 2025. Back in February 2025, a Pitagórica poll had awarded him 35.9% and a clear lead, but recent surveys now place him between 15% and 19%. Despite the decline, the admiral remains in contention for a spot in the February 8 runoff.
Gouveia e Melo has dismissed concerns about polling numbers. When asked about the drop in voting intentions, he said he was not "truly worried" and pointed out: "We only have to look at one poll, the poll on election day." The independent candidate emphasizes his non-partisan approach. He recently declared:
I served Portugal for 45 years. When Portugal needed me, I was there, I was always there. I didn't ask the Portuguese people at the time whether they were left-wing or right-wing.
Ventura Faces 60% Rejection Rate Despite Leading First Round with Stable 18-24% Support
While populist candidate André Ventura consistently tops or places near the top of first-round polls, his path to ultimate victory faces significant obstacles. Analysts point to his high rejection rate of more than 60% of voters in all recent opinion polls, which suggest that he would lose a runoff against any of the top four contenders. December polling data confirmed this vulnerability across multiple scenarios.
The election takes place against a backdrop of political instability. The 2026 presidential election is the fifth election in which Portuguese citizens have been called to vote since March 2024, following two legislative elections, European elections, and municipal elections. Polling stations opened at 08:00 and will close at 19:00 local time. If none of the candidates wins more than 50% + 1 vote, a second round between the two leading candidates will be held on 8 February. Early voting, which took place on January 11, attracted 218,481 voters - approximately 2% of the electorate.
These Are The Eleven Candidates
André Ventura - Supported by Chega. The far-right opposition leader in parliament who emerged as his party's candidate after Chega became the second largest party in the 2025 legislative elections. Previously ran for president in 2021. Polls show him leading first-round voting intentions but facing high rejection rates.
António José Seguro - Supported by the Socialist Party. Former secretary-general of the PS who secured almost unanimous party support following the 2025 local elections. Has benefited from divisions among center-right candidates and internal Socialist party disputes, climbing from fourth place to contention in recent tracking polls.
Henrique Gouveia e Melo - Independent candidate. Former Chief of Staff of the Navy who gained national prominence coordinating Portugal's COVID-19 vaccination campaign. Has support from figures across political spectrum including former PSD president Rui Rio. Emphasizes uniting Portugal above party divisions and bringing transformational change.
Luís Marques Mendes - Supported by Social Democratic Party and Democratic and Social Centre/People's Party. Former PSD president who announced candidacy in February 2025 and secured party backing in May. Backed by Prime Minister Luís Montenegro but faces internal party divisions, particularly from supporters of former Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho.
João Cotrim de Figueiredo - Supported by Liberal Initiative. Former IL leader who became the party's first elected MP less than seven years ago. Currently serves as member of European Parliament. Says he decided to run when he did not see anyone he wanted to vote for among other candidates.
Catarina Martins - Supported by Left Bloc. Former leader of BE and incumbent member of European Parliament who entered the race in September 2025. Represents the left-wing alternative after attempts for a united left-front candidacy failed following António Sampaio da Nóvoa's decision not to run for president.
António Filipe - Supported by Portuguese Communist Party. Former vice president of the Assembly of the Republic who announced candidacy in June 2025. Resolutely stated he would not withdraw from the race despite pressure from other left-wing candidates seeking a single unified candidacy to represent the left.
Jorge Pinto - Supported by LIVRE. Member of parliament from Porto who entered the presidential race in October 2025. Represents the newer eco-socialist party LIVRE in the fragmented left-wing field. Received endorsement from former MEP and current MP Rui Tavares in the final campaign stretch.
Manuel João Vieira - Independent candidate. Appears in recent polling data and participated in televised debates with other candidates. Limited information available about campaign platform and political background, representing one of several independent candidates seeking to challenge established party-backed contenders in the race.
Humberto Correia - Independent candidate. Participated in the January 6 debate on RTP alongside the other candidates. Represents one of the lesser-known independent candidates in the race who qualified by submitting the required 7,500 signatures to the Constitutional Court by the December 18 deadline.
André Pestana - Independent candidate. Participated in televised debates including the January 6 debate on public broadcaster RTP. Represents one of several independent candidates who successfully gathered enough signatures to qualify for the ballot, adding to the record field of eleven presidential contenders.
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